A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
