Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
